I wrote a script that's partially finished and submitted it to the Final Draft Big Break contest. I really didn't want anyone to read. I'm still not sure if I do. But this morning, I received Mark Manson's newsletter "Your Next Breakthrough". In it he notes a story how Stephen King wrote 3 pages of… Continue reading Static
Month: July 2026
Routine of Dreams
The Perfect Day does exist ...
Nothing to Lose
Last post, I defended Ron Wayne. I argued that selling 10% of Apple for $800 may have been the right call, that he was pricing the base rate while the rest of us price the exception, and that judging decisions by outcomes is the most natural mistake in the world and still a mistake. I… Continue reading Nothing to Lose
Did It All Work Out?
On survivorship bias, hindsight, and why the counterfactual is the only honest way to judge a decision In April 1976, twelve days after co-founding Apple, Ron Wayne sold his 10% stake back to Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak for $800. You know where this is going. Apple is now worth trillions of dollars, the internet… Continue reading Did It All Work Out?
The Retired Economy
Why a good jobs report makes the market fall — and what that says about a country that has stopped working for a living. A strong jobs report came out, and the market fell. If you’ve spent any time near financial news, you barely register the strangeness of this anymore. More Americans found work than… Continue reading The Retired Economy
the counterfactual 